Track Record

2026-06-24 · Gemini 次期モデル · Aug 1 – Aug 31, 2026 · 65%

The scheduled shutdown of Imagen 4 and Gemini 3 Image models on August 17 strongly suggests that preparations are underway for a successor release. This is corroborated by a leak mentioning "Gemini Omni Pro", increasing confidence in a mid-to-late August launch window.

2026-06-24 · Cursor 次期モデル · Jul 1 – Jul 31, 2026 · 65%

Multiple leaks and a statement attributed to a co-founder indicate a release "within the next few weeks" for Cursor's first fully self-trained model. This consistency across several signals, even with some from low-trust sources, reinforces the forecast for a July release and slightly increases confidence.

2026-06-24 · Gemma 次期モデル · Jul 1 – Jul 31, 2026 · 50%

The forecast has been pulled forward significantly based on an official Google model card. This document explicitly lists several unreleased multimodal models in the Gemma 4 family, including 26B and 31B variants. The public documentation of these models strongly suggests their release is imminent, justifying the revised July window and increased confidence.

2026-06-24 · GLM 次期モデル · Jul 29 – Sep 5, 2026 · 60%

A JPMorgan analyst report predicts that Zhipu AI will launch its next flagship model, GLM-5.5, in August 2026. This aligns with the baseline statistical release cadence, increasing confidence and allowing for a more focused release window centered on August.

2026-06-24 · Kimi 次期モデル · Jul 1 – Jul 31, 2026 · 90%

The prediction for a July 2026 release is maintained with high confidence, based on multiple, consistent, and strong leaks from a credible AI insider. Recent signals regarding service disruptions are of low trust and do not impact the current forecast for the next model's release.

2026-06-24 · Grok 次期モデル · Jun 25 – Jun 30, 2026 · 90%

Multiple leaks from a credible AI analyst strongly suggest that Grok 4.4 will be released within June 2026. This is corroborated by unconfirmed reports of the model becoming available to some users this week, indicating a release is imminent.

2026-06-24 · Gemini 次期モデル · Jul 15 – Jul 31, 2026 · 85%

Hints of a future 'Gemini Omni Pro' variant, combined with a series of official deprecations for older models, suggest that preparations for a new release are underway. However, the lack of specific timing information warrants widening the release window and lowering confidence.

2026-06-24 · GPT-6 (次期GPT) · Jun 25 – Jun 28, 2026 · 98%

Multiple credible leakers now report that the release of the next model, GPT-5.6, has been delayed until mid-July. While one leak pointed to a release as early as this week, the weight of evidence suggesting a delay has pushed the forecast window back and reduced confidence from previous highs.

2026-06-24 · Gemma 次期モデル · Nov 2026 – Feb 2027 · 35%

The forecast has been pulled forward significantly and confidence increased due to an official Google model card. This document explicitly lists several unreleased multimodal models within the Gemma 4 family (including 26B and 31B variants), suggesting their release is being prepared and is likely to occur in the near future.

2026-06-24 · Kimi 次期モデル · Jul 1 – Jul 31, 2026 · 90%

Multiple consistent leaks from a credible insider strongly suggest that Kimi's next frontier model, "Kimi K3," is scheduled for release in July 2026. The high confidence for a July release is maintained based on the strength of these repeated claims.

2026-06-24 · Grok 次期モデル · Jun 25 – Jul 8, 2026 · 85%

The prediction window has been significantly narrowed based on multiple credible leaks indicating Grok 4.4 will be released imminently, specifically within June 2026. One source suggests some users may have already gained access this week. This high confidence is slightly tempered by potential delays from a recent safety-related lawsuit against the company.

2026-06-24 · Gemini 次期モデル · Jul 15 – Jul 31, 2026 · 80%

A leak suggests that the planned June launch of Gemini 3.5 Pro was canceled due to internal dissatisfaction, with major releases now expected in July. This aligns with and strengthens our existing forecast for a mid-to-late July release window. Another leak mentioned the ongoing development of a "Gemini Omni Pro," indicating work on the next frontier model is progressing.

2026-06-24 · GPT-6 (次期GPT) · Jun 25 – Jun 28, 2026 · 98%

Multiple credible leakers suggest a release for 'this Thursday' (June 25th). This is corroborated by other leaks showing 'GPT-5.6' appearing in production systems, strongly indicating an imminent release despite conflicting rumors of a delay.

2026-06-24 · GLM 次期モデル · Jul 2026 – Sep 2026 · 45%

A JPMorgan analyst report predicts Zhipu AI will launch its next flagship model, GLM-5.5, in August 2026. This aligns with the baseline statistical release cadence, increasing confidence and allowing for a more focused release window.

2026-06-24 · DeepSeek 次期モデル · Jul 17 – Aug 28, 2026 · 40%

A "DeepSeek V4.1" release appears likely. Community reports indicate the model's knowledge cutoff has been updated to June 2026, suggesting a new version is in testing. This is further supported by a planned API deprecation on July 24, which often precedes a new model launch.

2026-06-24 · Cursor 次期モデル · Jul 2026 – Aug 2026 · 50%

Multiple leaks and a statement attributed to the co-founder suggest the company's first self-trained model will ship 'within the next few weeks.' This has narrowed the previously wide release window and increased confidence.

2026-06-24 · Kimi 次期モデル · Jul 1 – Jul 31, 2026 · 90%

Multiple leaks from a credible insider consistently and strongly indicate a July 2026 release for the next major model, 'Kimi K3'. These signals corroborate an earlier release than the statistical baseline, justifying the maintenance of the current July window and high confidence level.

2026-06-24 · Qwen 次期モデル · Jul 15 – Jul 25, 2026 · 75%

A leak from an Alibaba Qwen ambassador indicated the next model, 'Qwen-4.0-max', is expected within one month. This new information reinforces the existing forecast window and increases confidence in the prediction.

2026-06-24 · Grok 次期モデル · Oct 2026 – Dec 2026 · 80%

The forecast has been significantly pulled forward based on credible leaks from an analyst suggesting Grok 4.4 will be released by the end of June, with some unconfirmed user reports of its availability this week. This shifts the focus from a previous Q4 prediction to an imminent incremental update.

2026-06-24 · Gemini 次期モデル · Jul 8 – Jul 26, 2026 · 72%

A credible leak indicates that a planned June launch was canceled, with major releases now expected in July. This is corroborated by an official Google announcement deprecating older models in August, clearing the way for a successor, and the official mention of a new 'Gemini Omni' model in the latest Pixel update, confirming active development of the next model family.

2026-06-24 · GPT-6 (次期GPT) · Jun 24 – Jun 26, 2026 · 98%

Multiple credible leakers have converged on a specific release date, indicating that GPT-5.6 will likely be released 'this Thursday,' June 25. The appearance of specific model IDs ('gpt-5-6-auto') and release candidates ('kindle-alpha') in testing environments strongly reinforces the existing narrow prediction window and very high confidence in an imminent launch.

2026-06-24 · DeepSeek 次期モデル · Jul 2026 – Sep 2026 · 35%

Multiple leaks indicating performance improvements and an updated knowledge cutoff for the current model suggest an incremental update is being tested. This, combined with a legacy API deprecation scheduled for July 24, increases the likelihood of a near-term release.

2026-06-24 · Claude 次期モデル · Jun 24 – Jul 2, 2026 · 85%

While some leaks suggest the next frontier model (a Mythos successor) has finished training and is ready, another leak reports its progress has "stalled," likely due to ongoing U.S. export control issues. Given this regulatory uncertainty, we are pushing the release window back and slightly lowering our confidence.

2026-06-24 · Kimi 次期モデル · Jul 1 – Jul 31, 2026 · 85%

Multiple strong leaks from a credible insider repeatedly and confidently pinpoint a July 2026 release for the next major model, identified as Kimi K3. The high certainty of these claims, including one asserting a release "in July 100%", reinforces the current window and raises our confidence.

2026-06-24 · Qwen 次期モデル · Jul 10 – Jul 25, 2026 · 60%

A leak from a Qwen ambassador on social media specified a timeline for the next model, stating that the closed-source 'Qwen-4.0-max' is expected in one month. This new information significantly increases confidence and narrows the release window to mid-to-late July.

2026-06-24 · Gemini 次期モデル · Jun 23 – Jul 3, 2026 · 88%

The prediction window is pushed to July and confidence lowered based on a new leak reporting that Google has canceled the planned June launch of Gemini 3.5 Pro due to internal dissatisfaction. This new information contradicts a previous cluster of leaks pointing to an imminent release but is corroborated by earlier speculation about a potential delay to July.

2026-06-24 · GPT-6 (次期GPT) · Jun 24 – Jun 26, 2026 · 98%

Confidence in a release this week remains extremely high, bolstered by new leaks on June 24th showing the model ID 'gpt-5-6-auto' in the ChatGPT user interface and 'GPT-5.6' in a GitHub repository. These findings reinforce multiple earlier reports from leakers that consistently targeted a public launch for June 25th.

2026-06-24 · DeepSeek 次期モデル · Jul 20 – Aug 31, 2026 · 35%

Reports of sudden performance improvements in DeepSeek V4 Flash and rumors of a 'V4.1' update with a June 2026 knowledge cutoff suggest active development of the next model. While a prominent leaker noted that missing the mid-June window might push back the timeline, the upcoming deprecation of legacy API names on July 24, 2026, remains a strong indicator of an impending transition, leading us to forecast a release window between late July and mid-September 2026.

2026-06-24 · Claude 次期モデル · Jun 24 – Jul 2, 2026 · 80%

The appearance of the "claude-sonnet-5" model slug on a partner platform, combined with recent leaks indicating that Claude Sonnet 5 is positioned as the next major release in the Claude 5 series, suggests a highly imminent launch. Consequently, we have maintained a narrow prediction window for the upcoming week and increased our confidence to 85%.

2026-06-23 · Claude 次期モデル · Jun 23 – Jul 7, 2026 · 75%

Multiple recent leaks suggest the imminent launch of Claude 5 Sonnet. A model slug 'claude-sonnet-5' was reportedly spotted on an Anthropic partner provider platform, while other rumors indicate it will be the second model in the Claude 5 series, potentially releasing on a Tuesday or Thursday. Consequently, we have narrowed the prediction window to late June or early July with high confidence.

2026-06-22 · Grok 次期モデル · Jun 13 – Jun 21, 2026 · 99%

According to a report from AI analyst Andrew Curran, xAI is expected to release Grok 4.4 in June 2026, pushing back the Grok 5 release to the end of the year. Additionally, safety concerns raised in a recent whistleblower lawsuit may impact the development timeline, prompting us to shift the expected window to Q4 2026.

2026-06-22 · GPT-6 (次期GPT) · Jun 23 – Jun 26, 2026 · 98%

Multiple credible leakers and community testers have reported active stealth testing of GPT-5.6 and GPT-5.6 Pro, pointing to a highly anticipated release on Thursday, June 25, 2026. The leaks describe a release candidate codenamed 'kindle-alpha' with superior reasoning compared to GPT-5.5 Pro, strongly solidifying the near-term release window.

2026-06-22 · Claude 次期モデル · Jun 25 – Jul 15, 2026 · 70%

Recent leaks from partner providers exposing the 'claude-sonnet-5' model slug, combined with reports of an imminent Tuesday or Thursday launch, suggest the release of Claude Sonnet 5 is very near. This keeps our prediction window tight, centered around late June to early July 2026.

2026-06-22 · Claude 次期モデル · Jun 25 – Jul 15, 2026 · 75%

Recent leaks from community observers indicate that Claude Sonnet 5 and an updated Claude Mythos (potentially Fable 5.1) are actively being prepared, with Sonnet 5 rumored to target a Tuesday or Thursday launch. Despite ongoing adjustments due to US export restrictions on cutting-edge models, a late June to mid-July release of the next Claude 5 variant remains highly probable.

2026-06-22 · Gemini 次期モデル · Jun 23 – Jul 3, 2026 · 85%

Following the Google CEO's timeline announcement at Google I/O 2026 and teasers from key personnel, multiple leaks and market odds strongly point to a launch by the end of June 2026. The discovery of new model IDs on OpenRouter further corroborates that the release of Gemini 3.5 Pro is imminent.

2026-06-21 · Gemini 次期モデル · Jun 22 – Jun 30, 2026 · 90%

Based on recent teasers from Google staff and multiple leaks pointing to a launch 'this week' or by the June 30 deadline, Gemini 3.5 Pro's release appears imminent. Although there is minor speculation about a potential slip into July, the consensus among key sources strongly points to late June.

2026-06-21 · GPT-6 (次期GPT) · Jun 23 – Jun 26, 2026 · 98%

According to multiple leaks and community sightings, OpenAI is actively stealth testing the GPT-5.6 family (including GPT-5.6 Pro under the 'Kindle-Alpha' checkpoint). Numerous sources are highly aligned on an imminent release date of Thursday, June 25, 2026, with leaked screenshots indicating significant improvements in reasoning, coding, and 3D tasks.

2026-06-21 · DeepSeek 次期モデル · Jul 20 – Aug 31, 2026 · 35%

With no new external signals detected since the launch of DeepSeek V4 Pro in late April 2026, the prediction for DeepSeek V5 remains anchored to the historical cadence. We maintain the current forecast window of late July to August 2026, representing a typical progression from the V4 preview phase, though confidence remains moderate at 35% due to the lack of recent official hints.

2026-06-21 · Cursor 次期モデル · Jul 2026 – Aug 2026 · 50%

With no new official announcements or leaks since the release of Composer 2.5 in mid-May 2026, the forecast for Composer 3 remains unchanged. We continue to expect a release in the mid-to-late summer window of 2026, aligning with Cursor's historical development cadence.

2026-06-21 · Kimi 次期モデル · Jul 1 – Jul 31, 2026 · 85%

Prominent leaker @chetaslua has reiterated that the upcoming Kimi K3 model is scheduled for a July 2026 release. Due to the high consistency of these leaks, we maintain the predicted release window of July 2026 with 85% confidence.

2026-06-20 · Gemini 次期モデル · Jun 18 – Jun 21, 2026 · 95%

Google official updates and developer statements strongly point to a June 2026 release for Gemini 3.5 Pro. Although the mid-June target has slightly passed without launch, high-trust indicators and ongoing developer hints suggest the release is imminent before the end of the month.

2026-06-20 · Claude 次期モデル · Jun 25 – Jul 15, 2026 · 75%

Highly credible media reports and API proxy detections reveal that an unreleased model codenamed 'Oceanus' (claude-oceanus-v1-p) is undergoing red-team testing. Although Fable 5 was launched recently, these active testing indicators suggest the next model is highly likely to debut between late June and mid-July.

2026-06-20 · Qwen 次期モデル · Jun 20 – Jul 15, 2026 · 65%

An ambassador for Qwen leaked that the closed-source version of the upcoming "Qwen-4.0-max" is scheduled to launch in approximately one month, with the open-source release following three months later. Based on this report, we have adjusted the predicted window to mid-July 2026.

2026-06-18 · Gemini 次期モデル · Jun 17 – Jun 20, 2026 · 98%

High-trust official blog posts from Google have explicitly scheduled the release of Gemini 3.5 Pro within one month of Google I/O, pointing to June 19, 2026. Additionally, a reference to Gemini 3.5 Pro was recently spotted in the Gemini 3.1 Pro model card, strongly indicating that the launch is imminent within the next few days.

2026-06-18 · GPT-6 (次期GPT) · Jun 17 – Jun 21, 2026 · 99%

Multiple credible leaks on June 18 indicate that OpenAI is actively stealth testing GPT-5.6 and GPT-5.6 Pro (associated with the 'Kindle-Alpha' checkpoint) with select users. Because sources consistently point to a public launch scheduled for June 25, 2026, we have narrowed the release window to target this specific date.

2026-06-18 · Claude 次期モデル · Jun 25 – Jul 15, 2026 · 75%

Highly credible reports and console sightings detected the unreleased model identifier `claude-oceanus-v1-p` (codenamed 'Oceanus') being distributed to red teams within Anthropic's developer environment. This active testing phase, combined with a highly compressed development cadence, suggests that the release of Claude Fable 5.5 is imminent, likely landing between late June and mid-July.

2026-06-17 · Claude 次期モデル · Jun 25 – Jul 19, 2026 · 80%

Leaked console identifiers for the 'Oceanus' model (claude-oceanus-v1-p) indicate active red-team testing is underway, pointing to an imminent release of the next Claude model. Although Claude Fable 5 was just launched on June 9, the rapid progression of these internal tests supports a condensed release window for Claude Fable 5.5 by mid-July.

2026-06-16 · Gemini 次期モデル · Jun 17 – Jun 20, 2026 · 98%

Official Google blog posts and executive statements have strongly pointed to a Gemini 3.5 Pro release by June 19, 2026. Recent references to the model in technical documentation further corroborate that an imminent public launch is planned within the next few days.

2026-06-16 · Claude 次期モデル · Jun 25 – Jul 19, 2026 · 85%

High-trust sources and developer leaks reveal that Anthropic has been red-teaming a new model identifier, `claude-oceanus-v1-p` (codenamed Oceanus). Despite reports of a temporary halt due to unauthorized API exposure, this active testing strongly suggests that the model is in its final pre-release stages, keeping our forecasted window highly probable.

2026-06-15 · Gemini 次期モデル · Jun 17 – Jun 20, 2026 · 98%

Multiple official Google blog posts have confirmed a June 2026 release for Gemini 3.5 Pro. One highly credible post specified the release would occur within the month following Google I/O, setting a firm deadline of June 19. This solidifies the very high confidence in an imminent release.

2026-06-15 · Claude 次期モデル · Jul 11 – Aug 8, 2026 · 75%

Multiple leaks, including a credible journalist report, indicate Anthropic's next model, codenamed "Oceanus," was made available to red teams in early June. The consistent sighting of this model ID across several sources strongly suggests an upcoming release, prompting an earlier forecast window and increased confidence.

2026-06-15 · Cursor 次期モデル · Jul 2026 – Aug 2026 · 50%

The forecast remains unchanged as there are no new specific signals regarding the release of Composer 3. The current prediction is based on an inferred cadence following the previous release.

2026-06-15 · Kimi 次期モデル · Jul 1 – Jul 31, 2026 · 80%

Confidence has been increased based on multiple leaks from a credible AI insider strongly suggesting a July release for Kimi K3. The source's assertion of '100%' certainty for a July launch reinforces the existing window.

2026-06-14 · Gemini 次期モデル · Jun 17 – Jun 20, 2026 · 98%

Multiple official Google sources, including the company blog and statements from the CEO, have explicitly confirmed a June 2026 release for Gemini 3.5 Pro. One official statement specifically mentioned a release within one month of Google I/O (by June 19, 2026), strongly supporting a narrow, imminent window and dramatically increasing confidence.

2026-06-14 · GPT-6 (次期GPT) · Jun 17 – Jun 21, 2026 · 99%

While numerous leaks point to an imminent release of an incremental model, GPT-5.6, signals regarding the next *frontier* model (GPT-6) consistently indicate a more distant release. Reports and market predictions place the launch in late 2026 or early 2027. This forecast has been adjusted to reflect the timeline for the true successor model, also accounting for potential regulatory scrutiny that could impact the schedule.

2026-06-14 · DeepSeek 次期モデル · Aug 2026 – Nov 2026 · 20%

The official, permanent price reduction for the DeepSeek V4 Pro API is a strong market signal that often precedes the release of a successor model. While geopolitical and regulatory pressure from the U.S. introduces some uncertainty, this economic signal points towards an earlier release than the baseline forecast.

2026-06-14 · Cursor 次期モデル · Jul 2026 – Aug 2026 · 50%

No new relevant signals have been observed regarding Cursor's next frontier model. Recent news about Anthropic's models is unrelated to this forecast, so the release window and confidence level are maintained.

2026-06-14 · Kimi 次期モデル · Jul 1 – Jul 31, 2026 · 75%

The forecast for a July release is significantly strengthened by a new leak from a credible AI insider. This source explicitly states that "Kimi k3", the next major model, is guaranteed to be released in July, which increases our confidence in the existing window.

2026-06-14 · Gemini 次期モデル · Jun 17 – Jun 20, 2026 · 98%

Confidence remains extremely high based on multiple official statements from Google. One key signal from a company blog specifies a release 'in the month following Google I/O 2026,' effectively setting a deadline of June 19. This is corroborated by Google's CEO, who also confirmed a June launch, narrowing the likely release to the upcoming week.

2026-06-14 · GPT-6 (次期GPT) · Jun 17 – Jun 21, 2026 · 99%

Multiple credible leakers have indicated a major model announcement and ChatGPT revamp is planned for the week of June 17th. Active community testing of a new model, potentially named GPT-5.6, has also been reported, strengthening the evidence for an imminent release.

2026-06-14 · DeepSeek 次期モデル · Aug 2026 – Nov 2026 · 20%

With no new concrete signals regarding DeepSeek's next model, the forecast remains at the statistical baseline derived from historical release cadence. The prediction window and confidence level are therefore unchanged.

2026-06-14 · Kimi 次期モデル · Jul 1 – Jul 31, 2026 · 70%

The estimate is primarily driven by a leak from a known AI insider, who asserted with high confidence that the next major model, "Kimi k3," will be released in July. This specific claim significantly shortens the timeline from the historical cadence baseline and reinforces the existing July prediction window.

2026-06-14 · Qwen 次期モデル · Aug 2026 – Oct 2026 · 50%

A new model ID, "qwen/qwen3.7-plus," has appeared in the model list of OpenRouter, a reliable API provider. This type of signal is a strong leading indicator that typically precedes an official release by a few weeks, prompting us to pull the forecast window forward significantly and increase our confidence.

2026-06-13 · Gemini 次期モデル · Jun 17 – Jun 20, 2026 · 98%

The prediction is anchored by multiple official Google statements from and after I/O 2026, which consistently indicate a June 2026 general availability for Gemini 3.5 Pro. One official source specifically pointed to a release within one month of I/O, suggesting a deadline of June 19th. A credible leak also mentions ongoing testing of the model, reinforcing that the release is imminent.

2026-06-13 · GPT-6 (次期GPT) · Jun 17 – Jun 21, 2026 · 99%

Multiple credible leaks from known community figures and insiders strongly indicate that an incremental model, likely named "GPT-5.6," will be announced and possibly released next week. Several sources specifically mention this timeframe, and external testing is reportedly underway, solidifying expectations for an imminent launch.

2026-06-13 · Kimi 次期モデル · Jul 2026 – Sep 2026 · 50%

The prediction window has been narrowed significantly based on a leak from a known AI insider. The source asserted with high confidence that Kimi's next frontier model will be released in July, prompting an update from the previous, wider estimate and an increase in confidence.

2026-06-13 · Gemini 次期モデル · Jun 17 – Jun 20, 2026 · 98%

Confidence is extremely high due to multiple official statements from Google, including from CEO Sundar Pichai, explicitly targeting a June 2026 release for Gemini 3.5 Pro after its delay at Google I/O. This official timeline is further corroborated by internal leaks pointing to a mid-June general availability, allowing for a very narrow prediction window.

2026-06-13 · Claude 次期モデル · Jul 8 – Aug 6, 2026 · 65%

The forecast has been updated based on multiple credible leaks indicating a new model, codenamed 'Oceanus,' is already undergoing internal red-teaming. This stage typically precedes a public release by several weeks to a few months. Reports of an internal investigation following the leak add some uncertainty but also confirm the model's existence, increasing confidence in a release within the next two months.

2026-06-12 · Grok 次期モデル · Jun 13 – Jun 21, 2026 · 99%

Official statements from Elon Musk and x.ai strongly indicate an imminent release. Musk confirmed on June 5th that the next model has completed training and is slated for a 'mid-June' public release. This aligns with official company guidance for a public beta release window of May-June 2026.

2026-06-12 · Gemini 次期モデル · Jun 17 – Jun 24, 2026 · 98%

Confidence in a mid-June release for Gemini 3.5 Pro is extremely high, driven by official Google announcements and supporting leaks. A post on Google's official blog specifically stated a release by June 19, which aligns with internal leaks pointing to mid-June, solidifying the narrow prediction window.

2026-06-12 · GPT-6 (次期GPT) · Jun 24 – Jun 28, 2026 · 99%

The forecast has been brought forward significantly based on multiple credible leaks indicating a release of GPT-5.6 next week. This is strongly corroborated by reports of a release candidate codenamed "Kindle" appearing in a testing arena and claims of active community testing of the new model.

2026-06-12 · Claude 次期モデル · Jun 25 – Jul 23, 2026 · 60%

Multiple credible leaks indicate a new model codenamed "Oceanus" (model ID `claude-oceanus-v1-p`) is undergoing red-team testing, a late stage before a potential release. However, reports also suggest this testing program was temporarily halted due to an internal investigation, introducing significant uncertainty and likely delaying the launch. This pushes our forecast window later, while slightly increasing confidence due to the confirmed existence of the model.

2026-06-12 · Gemini 次期モデル · Jun 18 – Jun 30, 2026 · 98%

Confidence remains very high based on multiple official statements from Google, including a blog post specifying a release 'by June 19, 2026'. This is strongly corroborated by internal leaks pointing to a mid-June general availability. The release of Gemini 3.5 Pro appears imminent, justifying a narrow window.

2026-06-12 · Grok 次期モデル · Jun 13 – Jun 21, 2026 · 99%

Elon Musk's official confirmation on June 5, 2026, that a new model has completed training and is expected for public release in "mid-June" provides a very specific and high-confidence timeline. This is corroborated by his earlier statement on May 25 giving a 2-3 week release window, as well as an official xAI communication indicating a May-June public beta. This strong evidence points to an imminent release.

2026-06-12 · Gemini 次期モデル · Jun 18 – Jun 30, 2026 · 98%

The prediction is overwhelmingly supported by official Google announcements made at I/O, including on their blog, stating that Gemini 3.5 Pro will have its general availability release in June 2026. This timeline is further refined by a high-credibility internal leak pointing to a mid-June launch, and journalist reports anticipating a release in the latter half of the month. The extremely high confidence reflects the direct and repeated official confirmations.

2026-06-12 · Gemini 次期モデル · Jun 18 – Jun 30, 2026 · 98%

Official announcements at Google I/O, including a statement from CEO Sundar Pichai, have confirmed that Gemini 3.5 Pro will be made generally available in June 2026, making this a very high-confidence event. Journalist reports and purported internal leaks further narrow the timeline, suggesting the release is most likely to occur in the mid-to-late part of the month, supporting the specific forecast window.

2026-06-12 · Claude 次期モデル · Jul 1 – Jul 29, 2026 · 55%

Multiple consistent leaks indicate that the next model, codenamed "Oceanus," is already undergoing red-teaming. This suggests the model is in an advanced state of development, increasing confidence in a near-term release. However, reports of an internal investigation into API misuse introduce potential for delay, leading to a slight pull-forward of the window and a modest increase in confidence.

2026-06-12 · GPT-6 (次期GPT) · Jun 24 – Jun 28, 2026 · 99%

Multiple credible leaks, including reports citing OpenAI's Chief Scientist, indicate that the next model, dubbed 'GPT-5.6,' is slated for release later this month. This short-term window is further supported by a recent hint from the CEO that a 'major AI upgrade is nearing release.'

2026-06-12 · Gemini 次期モデル · Jun 18 – Jun 30, 2026 · 98%

The estimate is based on multiple official statements from Google, including from CEO Sundar Pichai at Google I/O 2026, explicitly confirming a June 2026 release for Gemini 3.5 Pro. This is corroborated by journalist reports anticipating a general availability in late June. The extremely high confidence reflects the official and repeated nature of these announcements.

2026-06-12 · GPT-6 (次期GPT) · Jun 24 – Jun 28, 2026 · 99%

Multiple leaks, including some attributed to OpenAI's Chief Scientist, strongly indicate the next model is named GPT-5.6 and is slated for release "later this month" (June 2026). An official hint from the CEO that a major upgrade is "nearing release" further corroborates this timeline, while leaked codenames like "Iris-alpha" also point to an imminent launch.

2026-06-12 · Gemini 次期モデル · Jun 18 – Jun 30, 2026 · 95%

Multiple official announcements, including from the Google CEO, have confirmed a June 2026 release for the next model, Gemini 3.5 Pro. While an internal leak pointed to mid-June, reports on development status make a release in the latter half of the month more likely. This high-certainty evidence allows for a narrow window in late June with very high confidence.

2026-06-12 · GPT-6 (次期GPT) · Jun 24 – Jun 28, 2026 · 99%

Multiple leaks, including a report from The Information and internal comments attributed to OpenAI's chief scientist, strongly point to a release in late June 2026. A hint from the CEO about a "major AI upgrade nearing release" reinforces this imminent timeline, with the model widely expected to be named GPT-5.6.

2026-06-12 · Claude 次期モデル · Jul 8 – Aug 5, 2026 · 42%

Multiple credible leaks and model ID sightings confirm that Anthropic's next model, codenamed "Oceanus," is currently undergoing red-team testing. This strong evidence that the next model is in an advanced stage of internal evaluation allows us to increase confidence and slightly advance the release window.

2026-06-12 · Grok 次期モデル · Jun 2026 – Jul 2026 · 99%

The estimate is primarily driven by official statements from Elon Musk, who indicated on May 25 that the model had completed training and would be released in 2-3 weeks, and then reaffirmed on June 5 an expected public release in "mid-June 2026." Multiple leaks and official hints also corroborate a May-June public beta window, suggesting a release is imminent.

2026-06-12 · Gemini 次期モデル · Jun 18 – Jun 30, 2026 · 95%

The estimate is based on multiple official announcements from Google I/O 2026, including statements from the CEO, confirming a June 2026 release for Gemini 3.5 Pro. Journalist reports and internal leaks further specify the timing to mid-to-late June, justifying the high confidence and the narrow window at the end of the month.

2026-06-12 · GPT-6 (次期GPT) · Jun 17 – Jun 30, 2026 · 98%

Multiple highly credible leaks, including reports citing OpenAI's Chief Scientist and The Information, strongly point to a release for the next model in late June 2026. This is corroborated by an official hint from the CEO that a major upgrade is "nearing release," justifying a very narrow window and extremely high confidence.

2026-06-12 · Claude 次期モデル · Jun 12 – Jun 19, 2026 · 49%

The prediction window has been shifted later and widened. Multiple sources indicate a new model, codenamed 'Oceanus', has been available to red teams since early June. While this points to an upcoming release, the recent launch of Claude Fable 5 and prediction market data suggesting a longer wait for the next major model temper expectations for an immediate follow-up.

2026-06-12 · Gemini 次期モデル · Jun 18 – Jul 15, 2026 · 95%

The prediction is strongly anchored by official statements from Google and its CEO at Google I/O 2026, explicitly confirming a June 2026 release for Gemini 3.5 Pro. This is further corroborated by internal leaks suggesting a mid-June timeframe, leading to a high-confidence forecast for the latter half of the month.

2026-06-12 · GPT-6 (次期GPT) · Jun 2026 – Jul 2026 · 95%

Multiple credible leaks, including reports from The Information and attributed to OpenAI's Chief Scientist, point to a release in late June 2026. This forecast is further supported by recent official hints from the CEO and R&D updates.

2026-06-12 · Claude 次期モデル · Jun 8 – Jul 6, 2026 · 29%

Confidence is significantly increased due to multiple credible leaks indicating a release is imminent—as soon as "today" or "this week." The appearance of the new model identifier, "Claude Fable 5," on third-party platforms and reports of its rollout suggest the release is already underway, with a developer event in Japan tomorrow providing a likely venue for an official announcement.

2026-06-12 · Gemini 次期モデル · Jun 17 – Jul 15, 2026 · 95%

Multiple official announcements and hints from Google I/O explicitly state that Gemini 3.5 Pro is scheduled for a June 2026 release. This is corroborated by several high-credibility reports. The window extends slightly into July to account for mentions of potential minor delays due to safety reviews, but confidence remains very high.

2026-06-12 · Claude 次期モデル · Jun 9 – Jun 10, 2026 · 100%

Claude Fable 5 shipped — rolled over to tracking the next cycle (baseline regenerated from cycle model)

2026-06-12 · Gemini 次期モデル · Jun 17 – Jul 15, 2026 · 95%

The forecast is overwhelmingly driven by official Google statements confirming a June 2026 release for Gemini 3.5 Pro. Specifically, announcements indicated the model would be released within three weeks from June 6, creating a high-confidence window for late June, despite minor risks of safety-related delays.

2026-06-12 · GPT-6 (次期GPT) · Jul 2026 – Aug 2026 · 90%

The prediction has been updated based on multiple, credible leaks, particularly those citing internal communications from OpenAI's chief scientist. These sources strongly suggest that the next model, designated "GPT-5.6," is slated for release later this month. This has prompted a significant shift forward in the release window and an increase in confidence.

2026-06-12 · Grok 次期モデル · Jun 2026 – Jul 2026 · 99%

The forecast window has been brought forward significantly with very high confidence due to official statements from Elon Musk confirming a model (codenamed 'V9-Medium') has completed training and is expected for public release in mid-June 2026. Multiple leaks corroborate this timeline and suggest the upcoming model will be officially named 'Grok 5'.

2026-06-12 · Gemini 次期モデル · Jun 17 – Jul 31, 2026 · 95%

Multiple official announcements from Google confirm that Gemini 3.5 Pro is scheduled for public release in June 2026. A more specific timeline indicates a release within three weeks of June 6, while an unverified leak suggests a launch as early as next week. The window extends slightly into July to account for potential delays mentioned in an official source.

2026-06-12 · GPT-6 (次期GPT) · Feb 2027 – Apr 2027 · 80%

The prediction window has been significantly advanced and narrowed based on multiple, credible leaks indicating OpenAI is preparing to release its next flagship model, internally named GPT-5.6, very soon. These leaks describe it as a 'meaningful improvement.' However, the timeline is tempered by a new official policy requiring a 30-day government review period for advanced models, making a July-August timeframe more likely than the 'later this month' suggested by some sources.

2026-06-12 · Grok 次期モデル · Jun 2026 – Jul 2026 · 99%

The forecast is extremely high-confidence due to Elon Musk's direct confirmation on June 5 that a model with completed training is expected for public release in mid-June 2026. This official statement aligns with his previous announcement in late May of a 2-3 week timeline, and is further corroborated by multiple leaks pointing to a May-June beta window, strongly indicating an imminent release.

2026-06-12 · Gemini 次期モデル · Jun 17 – Jul 31, 2026 · 95%

The estimate is strongly supported by multiple official statements from Google, including from CEO Sundar Pichai at I/O 2026, pinpointing a June 2026 release for Gemini 3.5 Pro. This is further corroborated by multi-source reports suggesting a specific window of June 22-26. The end of the window has been extended slightly to account for potential minor delays mentioned by Google due to safety reviews.

2026-06-12 · GPT-6 (次期GPT) · Jan 2027 – Mar 2027 · 75%

The imminent release of an interim model, GPT-5.6, as reported in multiple leaks (061fd38c-efb7-43b2-a91e-619eb317b3df), makes a 2026 release for the next frontier model, GPT-6, highly unlikely. Furthermore, OpenAI's new policy of a 30-day government review period for advanced models (70f7a4bc-85d6-49b2-a575-2fce7cb3204e) adds a predictable delay, pushing the likely release window further into 2027. These factors increase confidence in a release during the first half of 2027.