An AI startup utilizing Anthropic's latest 'Claude Fable' model has sued the US government over regulatory export restrictions that limit overseas access to the model.
Open source ↗
Anthropic
Claude 5 Sonnet
PREV Claude Fable 5 · 2026-06-09
Leaked name: Oceanus [unverified]
- Window
- Jul 8 – Jul 22, 2026
- Confidence
- 75%
- Analysis
- While some leaks suggest the next frontier model (a Mythos successor) has finished training and is ready, another leak reports its progress has "stalled," likely due to ongoing U.S. export control issues. Given this regulatory uncertainty, we are pushing the release window back and slightly lowering our confidence.
Last updated: 2026-06-24
Claude family release history
Historical release interval
13–245d
Est. next interval
17d×0.72/release
Days since current model
16d
Current model released
2026-06-09
Signals
According to AndrewCurran_, rumors persist about a new Sonnet model, and Anthropic teams are meeting frequently, with recent discussions possibly having gone well.
Open source ↗Japan's Finance Minister confirmed on June 23, 2026, that the Japanese government and major domestic banks had gained access to Anthropic's Claude Mythos, but access was suspended following the U.S. government order.
Open source ↗›View all signals (50)
2026-06-23
An AI startup utilizing Anthropic's latest 'Claude Fable' model has sued the US government over regulatory export restrictions that limit overseas access to the model.
Open source ↗According to AndrewCurran_, rumors persist about a new Sonnet model, and Anthropic teams are meeting frequently, with recent discussions possibly having gone well.
Open source ↗›View 1 more low-trust sources
Japan's Finance Minister confirmed on June 23, 2026, that the Japanese government and major domestic banks had gained access to Anthropic's Claude Mythos, but access was suspended following the U.S. government order.
Open source ↗2026-06-22
Semiconductor giant Micron has signed a strategic AI infrastructure supply agreement with Anthropic and participated in its funding round, securing critical hardware supply such as HBM (high-bandwidth memory) required for scaling next-generation Claude models.
Open source ↗According to AiBattle_, Claude Sonnet 5 is available to select enterprise customers via an Early Access Program as a stop-gap while the next major model's progress has stalled.
Open source ↗2026-06-21
A leak shared on X indicated that the model slug 'claude-sonnet-5' appeared on an Anthropic partner provider, suggesting an imminent release of the Claude Sonnet 5 model.
Open source ↗A new, more capable version of Mythos has reportedly emerged from training, potentially as Mythos 5.1 or 6, or kept internal.
Open source ↗An updated Claude Mythos (potentially Mythos or Fable 5.1) is reportedly on the way, with questions raised about whether it will be made public.
Open source ↗Claude Sonnet 5 has been spotted as the second release in the Claude 5 series, with reports indicating it is likely to launch on a Tuesday or Thursday.
Open source ↗2026-06-19
While President Trump indicated he does not view Anthropic as a national security threat, it has been reported that select early users continue to maintain preview access to Anthropic's unreleased 'Mythos' model.
Open source ↗It was reported that some Project Glasswing users retained access to a preview of Claude Fable 5 despite the broader shutdown.
Open source ↗2026-06-18
Anthropic's Managing Director of International stated during a press conference that Claude Fable 5 may become available again in the coming days.
Open source ↗2026-06-17
French President Emmanuel Macron is reportedly consulting with G7 leaders to find workarounds, such as securing alternative deployment routes through trusted partners, to bypass US export restrictions on Anthropic's AI models.
Open source ↗2026-06-16
A warning letter from the US Commerce Secretary to Anthropic revealed that the company was warned to obtain government permission for foreign national access to cutting-edge AI models, which led Anthropic to disable certain models like Mythos due to export regulations.
Open source ↗2026-06-15
Following a U.S. government order, Anthropic has blocked international access to its latest models, and company executives are set to meet with government officials to discuss the restriction.
Open source ↗Information regarding Claude Fable 5's export-control context has been discussed.
Open source ↗›View 1 more low-trust sources
Anthropic suspended access to its Fable 5 and Mythos 5 AI models for all users following a U.S. government directive due to national security concerns, effective June 15, 2026. An official stated on June 24, 2026, that a Mythos model had identified vulnerabilities in sensitive U.S. government computer systems.
Open source ↗2026-06-14
The U.S. government has ordered Anthropic to block overseas access to "Fable 5" and the unreleased model "Mythos 5" due to national security concerns.
Open source ↗2026-06-12
Anthropic announced a multi-year global partnership with DXC Technology to integrate Claude into regulated industry systems, signaling strong confidence in the enterprise deployment and stability of future Claude models, including claude-next.
Open source ↗›View 2 more low-trust sources
Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models were suspended on June 12, 2026, due to a U.S. government export control directive.
Open source ↗Prediction markets have significantly re-evaluated the timeline for a fully public, unrestricted Claude Mythos model, now anticipating it 'Before Jan 1, 2027,' due to the distinction between Fable 5 and the restricted Mythos 5 releases.
Open source ↗2026-06-11
OpenAI is considering significant price cuts in anticipation of Anthropic's predicted price reductions, suggesting Anthropic may intensify competition with new models like claude-next.
Open source ↗2026-06-10
testingcatalog highlighted on June 10 that Voice Mode on Claude will soon include a model selector (currently showing Claude Haiku 4.5), signaling a major upgrade and possible non-TTS voice support tied to the new model family.
Open source ↗2026-06-09
New model ID "anthropic/claude-fable-5" (Anthropic: Claude Fable 5) appeared in the OpenRouter model list.
Open source ↗On June 9, 2026, Anthropic introduced Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 with a substantial price reduction, offering them at $10 per million input tokens and $50 per million output tokens, which is a 60% decrease from the previous Claude Mythos Preview rates.
Open source ↗On June 9, @chetaslua shared new "Claude Fruitcake" checkpoints were added for testing, stating it was "possibly launching as soon as tomorrow."
Open source ↗testingcatalog reported on June 9 that Claude Fable 5 (Mythos) began rolling out on Claude.ai and APIs, with a usage plan active until June 22 (2x Opus usage); also noted preparation for Google Cloud Platform deployment 'really soon'.
Open source ↗Claude Fable 5 is reportedly available in a usage plan until June 22, equivalent to twice the Opus usage, with pricing rumored to be twice that of Opus 4.8 according to The Information.
Open source ↗Claude Mythos is reportedly planned for release as 'Claude Fable 5' according to checkpoints, Dev Mode, and Hacker News sources; Anthropic is also hosting a developer event in Japan tomorrow.
Open source ↗On June 9, @M1Astra and @koltregaskes posted that new "Claude Fruitcake EAP" checkpoints were detected over the weekend.
Open source ↗The new Anthropic model, 'Claude Fable' (the public version of Mythos), is expected to be released today, earlier than anticipated.
Open source ↗Anthropic is reportedly releasing 'Claude Fable 5 today', described as the public and safer version of Mythos 5, establishing a new Mythos-class tier above Opus.
Open source ↗Anthropic is reportedly 'preparing to release Claude Mythos 5 tomorrow', expected to be the first 10T+ parameter model.
Open source ↗›View 1 more low-trust sources
Anthropic officially released its next-generation AI model, Claude Fable 5, on June 9, 2026. This is their most capable widely released model.
Open source ↗2026-06-06
'Claude-Mythos-5' was spotted, indicating Mythos 5 would be released first, followed by Opus 5/Sonnet 5.
Open source ↗A new 'Claude Mythos 5' model slug was spotted in Dev Mode as its own class, separate from Haiku/Sonnet/Opus, suggesting an imminent release.
Open source ↗On June 6, AILeaksAndNews shared early outputs from the upcoming Mythos model (generating Minecraft/Terraria-style worlds).
Open source ↗Claude Mythos 5 was identified as the first 14-digit-parameter model, with a release 'likely this week'.
Open source ↗2026-06-03
Around June 3, 2026, the model identifier `claude-oceanus-v1-p` was sighted within the Anthropic Console and through unauthorized API proxy services, reportedly associated with a "Mythos" family model undergoing red-team testing prior to its formal release.
Open source ↗An unreleased Anthropic model ID, "claude-oceanus-v1-p," was reportedly observed in the Claude Console Workbench for red teamers on June 3, 2026. This model is believed to be a further development in the Mythos line. API access to this model was allegedly resold on a black market, leading Anthropic to temporarily halt the red-team program and initiate an internal investigation.
Open source ↗Around June 3, 2026, a new Anthropic model identifier, 'claude-oceanus-v1-p', was spotted in the Claude Console Workbench and circulated among researchers, reportedly made available to red teamers for security testing. Reports suggest this 'Oceanus' model builds on the Claude Mythos Preview foundation, indicating it is a part of the Mythos lineage.
Open source ↗›View 3 more low-trust sources
Around June 3, 2026, the model identifier `claude-oceanus-v1-p` was reportedly spotted in Anthropic's Claude Console and through unauthorized API proxy services, suggesting a new model building on the Mythos Preview foundation.
Open source ↗Around June 3, 2026, the unreleased model identifier "claude-oceanus-v1-p" was reportedly spotted in Anthropic's Claude Console and through unauthorized API proxy services, suggesting a new model in the Mythos lineage is undergoing red-team testing.
Open source ↗A leak indicated the appearance of a new model identifier, `claude-oceanus-v1-p`, within Anthropic's developer-facing management interface. It is reported to be one of the Mythos series models undergoing red-teaming, focusing on advanced reasoning, coding, cybersecurity, and long-term agentic tasks.
Open source ↗2026-06-01
Credible journalist reports and leaks indicate that Anthropic's next model, "Oceanus" (model string `claude-oceanus-v1-p`), has been spotted in the Anthropic Console Workbench and made available to red teams, suggesting a potential wider release soon.
Open source ↗2026-05-28
Anthropic announced the release of Claude Opus 4.8 and simultaneously hinted at plans to release a new class of models with higher intelligence than Opus, referring to the Mythos-class models currently used by a small number of organizations through Project Glasswing.
Open source ↗Anthropic updated its Opus model to Claude Opus 4.8 on May 28, 2026. This update includes benchmark improvements and new features.
Open source ↗›View 3 more low-trust sources
Anthropic released 'Claude Opus 4.8' on May 28, 2026, which focuses on enhanced coding, agentic task handling, and improved reliability.
Open source ↗Anthropic launched Claude Opus 4.8 on May 28, 2026, an upgraded version of Opus 4.7, with enhanced performance in coding, agentic tasks, reasoning, and knowledge work.
Open source ↗In an announcement on May 28, 2026, Anthropic stated they were making swift progress on developing safeguards for Mythos-class models and expected to bring them to all customers in the coming weeks.
Open source ↗›Prediction history (17)
2026-06-24 · Jun 24 – Jul 2, 2026 · 85%
While some leaks suggest the next frontier model (a Mythos successor) has finished training and is ready, another leak reports its progress has "stalled," likely due to ongoing U.S. export control issues. Given this regulatory uncertainty, we are pushing the release window back and slightly lowering our confidence.
2026-06-24 · Jun 24 – Jul 2, 2026 · 80%
The appearance of the "claude-sonnet-5" model slug on a partner platform, combined with recent leaks indicating that Claude Sonnet 5 is positioned as the next major release in the Claude 5 series, suggests a highly imminent launch. Consequently, we have maintained a narrow prediction window for the upcoming week and increased our confidence to 85%.
2026-06-23 · Jun 23 – Jul 7, 2026 · 75%
Multiple recent leaks suggest the imminent launch of Claude 5 Sonnet. A model slug 'claude-sonnet-5' was reportedly spotted on an Anthropic partner provider platform, while other rumors indicate it will be the second model in the Claude 5 series, potentially releasing on a Tuesday or Thursday. Consequently, we have narrowed the prediction window to late June or early July with high confidence.
2026-06-22 · Jun 25 – Jul 15, 2026 · 70%
Recent leaks from partner providers exposing the 'claude-sonnet-5' model slug, combined with reports of an imminent Tuesday or Thursday launch, suggest the release of Claude Sonnet 5 is very near. This keeps our prediction window tight, centered around late June to early July 2026.
2026-06-22 · Jun 25 – Jul 15, 2026 · 75%
Recent leaks from community observers indicate that Claude Sonnet 5 and an updated Claude Mythos (potentially Fable 5.1) are actively being prepared, with Sonnet 5 rumored to target a Tuesday or Thursday launch. Despite ongoing adjustments due to US export restrictions on cutting-edge models, a late June to mid-July release of the next Claude 5 variant remains highly probable.
2026-06-20 · Jun 25 – Jul 15, 2026 · 75%
Highly credible media reports and API proxy detections reveal that an unreleased model codenamed 'Oceanus' (claude-oceanus-v1-p) is undergoing red-team testing. Although Fable 5 was launched recently, these active testing indicators suggest the next model is highly likely to debut between late June and mid-July.
2026-06-18 · Jun 25 – Jul 15, 2026 · 75%
Highly credible reports and console sightings detected the unreleased model identifier `claude-oceanus-v1-p` (codenamed 'Oceanus') being distributed to red teams within Anthropic's developer environment. This active testing phase, combined with a highly compressed development cadence, suggests that the release of Claude Fable 5.5 is imminent, likely landing between late June and mid-July.
2026-06-17 · Jun 25 – Jul 19, 2026 · 80%
Leaked console identifiers for the 'Oceanus' model (claude-oceanus-v1-p) indicate active red-team testing is underway, pointing to an imminent release of the next Claude model. Although Claude Fable 5 was just launched on June 9, the rapid progression of these internal tests supports a condensed release window for Claude Fable 5.5 by mid-July.
2026-06-16 · Jun 25 – Jul 19, 2026 · 85%
High-trust sources and developer leaks reveal that Anthropic has been red-teaming a new model identifier, `claude-oceanus-v1-p` (codenamed Oceanus). Despite reports of a temporary halt due to unauthorized API exposure, this active testing strongly suggests that the model is in its final pre-release stages, keeping our forecasted window highly probable.
2026-06-15 · Jul 11 – Aug 8, 2026 · 75%
Multiple leaks, including a credible journalist report, indicate Anthropic's next model, codenamed "Oceanus," was made available to red teams in early June. The consistent sighting of this model ID across several sources strongly suggests an upcoming release, prompting an earlier forecast window and increased confidence.
2026-06-13 · Jul 8 – Aug 6, 2026 · 65%
The forecast has been updated based on multiple credible leaks indicating a new model, codenamed 'Oceanus,' is already undergoing internal red-teaming. This stage typically precedes a public release by several weeks to a few months. Reports of an internal investigation following the leak add some uncertainty but also confirm the model's existence, increasing confidence in a release within the next two months.
2026-06-12 · Jun 25 – Jul 23, 2026 · 60%
Multiple credible leaks indicate a new model codenamed "Oceanus" (model ID `claude-oceanus-v1-p`) is undergoing red-team testing, a late stage before a potential release. However, reports also suggest this testing program was temporarily halted due to an internal investigation, introducing significant uncertainty and likely delaying the launch. This pushes our forecast window later, while slightly increasing confidence due to the confirmed existence of the model.
2026-06-12 · Jul 1 – Jul 29, 2026 · 55%
Multiple consistent leaks indicate that the next model, codenamed "Oceanus," is already undergoing red-teaming. This suggests the model is in an advanced state of development, increasing confidence in a near-term release. However, reports of an internal investigation into API misuse introduce potential for delay, leading to a slight pull-forward of the window and a modest increase in confidence.
2026-06-12 · Jul 8 – Aug 5, 2026 · 42%
Multiple credible leaks and model ID sightings confirm that Anthropic's next model, codenamed "Oceanus," is currently undergoing red-team testing. This strong evidence that the next model is in an advanced stage of internal evaluation allows us to increase confidence and slightly advance the release window.
2026-06-12 · Jun 12 – Jun 19, 2026 · 49%
The prediction window has been shifted later and widened. Multiple sources indicate a new model, codenamed 'Oceanus', has been available to red teams since early June. While this points to an upcoming release, the recent launch of Claude Fable 5 and prediction market data suggesting a longer wait for the next major model temper expectations for an immediate follow-up.
2026-06-12 · Jun 8 – Jul 6, 2026 · 29%
Confidence is significantly increased due to multiple credible leaks indicating a release is imminent—as soon as "today" or "this week." The appearance of the new model identifier, "Claude Fable 5," on third-party platforms and reports of its rollout suggest the release is already underway, with a developer event in Japan tomorrow providing a likely venue for an official announcement.
2026-06-12 · Jun 9 – Jun 10, 2026 · 100%
Claude Fable 5 shipped — rolled over to tracking the next cycle (baseline regenerated from cycle model)